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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-07-23 16:47:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231447 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 The intensity of Douglas has leveled off in the overnight hours with the eyewall convection weakening, but the eye temperatures becoming a lot warmer, suggesting that the system has become a little more steady state. The wind speed is kept at 105 kt, which nearly matches the latest CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON). The cyclone has less than a day over warm water left to intensify before it encounters SSTs less than 26C. Douglas should only slowly weaken thereafter during the next few days due to the cooler waters along the predicted track since the vertical shear should remain low through Saturday. As the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, while the SSTs increase, so does the shear, and thus a continued weakening is forecast. Model guidance is consistent from the last forecast, and no significant changes were made to the NHC wind speed prediction. Douglas has been moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or 290/17. A large mid-level ridge over the eastern and central Pacific should continue to steer the hurricane on this general course and speed for the next couple of days, with some deceleration and a westward turn by late in the weekend. While the guidance remains in very good agreement, the only significant change to note is that this forecast is a bit faster than the previous one, but not as fast as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 13.6N 135.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 14.5N 138.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 141.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.0N 144.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 18.1N 147.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 19.1N 150.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.8N 153.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.7N 159.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 21.5N 165.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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