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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-07-23 22:43:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232042 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 Visible satellite images show that Douglas is quite a powerful hurricane. The eye has become more crisp during the day, and infrared data also show that the eyewall convection has deepened. The initial wind speed is raised to 110 kt, which matches a blend of the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates. Douglas is beginning to move across the typical cool SST gradient of the eastern Pacific, implying that the hurricane is probably near its peak intensity. The cyclone should only slowly weaken on Friday and Saturday due to cooler waters along the predicted track and the vertical shear remaining low. As the hurricane approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, the SSTs increase but so does the shear. Since the shear generally dominates over marginally warm waters, a continued weakening is forecast. However, almost all of the guidance shows Douglas near hurricane strength as it moves close to Hawaii. The model guidance remains consistent, and no significant changes were made to the NHC wind speed prediction. Douglas continues moving fairly quickly toward the west-northwest. A large mid-level ridge over the eastern and central Pacific should continue to steer the hurricane on this general course and speed for the next couple of days, with some deceleration and a westward turn by late in the weekend. The guidance is a little more divergent than the previous cycle, with a subtle northward model trend at longer range due to a weaker ridge forecast north of Hawaii, though the ECMWF and its ensembles have shifted a little southward. Given these mixed signals in the guidance, very little change is made to the previous NHC track forecast, and the new official forecast lies on the southwest side of the model envelope. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. Watches could be issued on Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 14.1N 137.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.2N 142.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 17.4N 145.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 19.4N 152.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 20.1N 154.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 96H 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 21.5N 167.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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