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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-07-24 10:48:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240848 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 Douglas continues to look impressive in satellite images, with a clear eye and symmetric convection in all quadrants. Broad outflow channels extend about 300 n mi in every direction from the cyclone, indicative of nearly zero wind shear. The latest Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB, as well as the recent UW/CIMSS ADT estimates are all T6.0, which supports keeping the initial advisory intensity at 115 kt. Douglas is crossing the 26 C isotherm, and will continue to move over relatively cooler waters of about 25 C over the next day or so. This should cause the cyclone to begin weakening very soon. In about 48 h, Douglas is forecast to move back across the 26 C isotherm, but at the same time the cyclone is forecast to begin encountering a drier, more stable airmass and increasing vertical wind shear. Despite the warmer waters, these other more hostile environmental factors are expected to cause Douglas to gradually weaken for the remainder of the 5-day forecast period. The latest NHC forecast is changed little from the previous advisory, and is very close to a blend of the corrected consensus HCCA and the IVCN/ICON consensus aids. Douglas is still moving quickly west-northwestward or 295/16 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep moving the cyclone in the same general direction over the next couple of days. Over the weekend, as Douglas approaches the Hawaiian Islands, a more westward motion is forecast as another ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. There is some notable spread in the model guidance now compared to yesterday as Douglas approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The faster and southernmost guidance from the ECMWF takes the center of the cyclone over the big island, while the northernmost GFS and HWRF take the cyclone just north of the island chain. The other guidance, including the track consensus aids lie in between those solutions. The latest NHC forecast was nudged slightly northward between 48 h and 96 h, but still remains south of the consensus aids during those time periods. Otherwise, the NHC forecast was little changed from the previous one. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Douglas. Future information on this system can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1500 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2 and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO. For information specific to the Hawaiian Islands, users should continue to consult products from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning Saturday night or Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. Watches could be issued on Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 15.7N 140.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 16.7N 142.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.9N 145.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 19.0N 148.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.9N 151.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 20.5N 154.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 72H 27/0600Z 21.0N 157.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 96H 28/0600Z 22.0N 163.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 22.4N 170.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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