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Hurricane ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-07-06 22:46:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062046 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS APPEARED INTERMITTENTLY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES WHILE A MID-LEVEL EYE HAS BEEN PRESENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BEING MAINTAINED BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS ADT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A STEADY 310/08 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO EITHER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ERICK MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THERE IS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF...HWRF AND UKMET MODELS TAKING ERICK OVER OR CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE... AND NAVGEM MODELS TAKE A WEAKENING ERICK MORE WESTWARD BY 72 HOURS. GIVEN THAT ERICK IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SUB-23C SSTS AFTER 48 HOURS AND LIKELY BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TCVE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN LEANS MORE TOWARD THE WEAKER AND WESTWARD SOLUTION OF THE GFS MODEL. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF ERICK OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER AND STRONGER WINDS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. ERICK COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE NEARBY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. BY 36 HOURS... HOWEVER...SHARPLY DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE STEADY IF NOT RAPID WEAKENING DESPITE THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT ERICK WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS IVCN AND ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 18.1N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 19.0N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 21.3N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 22.2N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 23.8N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z 24.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z 24.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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