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Hurricane ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-07-07 04:57:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070257 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 THE PROXIMITY OF ERICK TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE TAKING SOME TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. RECENT CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN AND INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE HAS DEGRADED SOME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN BETWEEN T4.0 AND T4.5...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR NOW. ERICK HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY SINCE LAND INTERACTION AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD HASTEN THE RATE OF WEAKENING...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON. ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 24 HOURS... THERE IS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF...HWRF...AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR NOW THE NHC TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND IS CLOSE TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 18.7N 105.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 19.6N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 20.8N 108.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 21.8N 109.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 22.9N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 24.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 24.8N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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