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Hurricane EUGENE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-07-10 04:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 09 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100236 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 09 2017 After steadily intensifying during the past couple of days, the strengthening trend of Eugene appears to have ended. The eye of the hurricane has become cloud-filled and ragged, and the convection in the eyewall is not quite as symmetric as it was earlier today. In addition, recent microwave images indicate that the eyewall has eroded on its east side. The Dvorak CI-numbers are 5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS satellite consensus estimate is 92 kt. Based on these values, the initial wind speed of Eugene is lowered to 90 kt. The current weakening of Eugene appears to be associated with some dry air that has wrapped into the circulation, as seen in total precipitable water images. The hurricane still has about another 12 hours over warm water and in a low wind shear environment, so little change in strength is expected overnight. Eugene is expected to cross the 26 deg C isotherm on Monday, and then move over progressively cooler waters later in the week. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a drier and more stable air mass should cause steady, or even rapid, weakening beginning on Monday. The NHC intensity forecast is above most of the guidance in the short term, but then falls in line with the consensus models and brings Eugene below hurricane strength in 24 to 36 hours. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low by 72 hours when it is forecast to be over water temperatures of around 20 C, which should cause the convection to dissipate. Eugene is moving northwestward at about 10 kt on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure system located over the southwestern United States. This high is expected to remain in place, which should keep Eugene moving northwestward during the next few days. After that time, a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the west-northwest is predicted when Eugene become a shallow system and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope for the next few days, and then favors the left side of the guidance when Eugene is predicted to be a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.6N 115.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.9N 117.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 20.5N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 21.8N 119.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 23.0N 120.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 26.5N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 28.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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