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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-08-11 16:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 111439 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Elida continued to get better organized through about 12Z, with the eye becoming better defined inside the cold overcast. Since then, the eye has become a little less distinct, suggesting that the hurricane has peaked in intensity. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 90 kt at 12Z, and based mainly on these the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 85 kt. The initial motion is now northwestward or 305/12 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west- northwestward for the next 36 h or so, and this part of the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. After that, there is spread between the NAVGEM/UK Ensemble mean/COAMPS-TC models, which show a more westward motion, and the bulk of the remaining guidance which shows a northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed due to Elida interacting with an upper-level low off of the coast of California. The new forecast follows the northwestward scenario and the various consensus models, and it has been nudged to the right of the previous forecast. Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the center forecast to be over 24C water in 24 h and 23C in 48 h. This should lead to rapid weakening after 12 h or so. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and the previous forecast in calling for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in just over 24 h and to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h. The new forecast has the remnant low dissipating between 72-96 h, and the global models suggest this could occur earlier than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.3N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 22.1N 115.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 23.1N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 23.9N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 24.8N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0000Z 25.8N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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