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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-06-27 16:47:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 271447 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Enrique has been holding its own over the past several hours, with some warming of the cloud tops over the estimated center, suggesting that an eye is attempting to form. The northern portion of the core appears to be entraining some dry air, which is likely due to down-sloping from the offshore flow over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Otherwise, the core of the hurricane appears well intact, and the latest Dvorak intensity estimate T-number from TAFB indicates that the initial intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory. Enrique has been wobbling on a nearly due north trajectory for the past 12 h or so, while the forward motion has appeared to increase to about 5 kt. There is little change to the forecast track reasoning. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is forecast to move toward a mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico. This trough is expected to gradually fill in over the next day or so, causing the system to turn to the north-northwest. By late Monday and Tuesday, the weakening cyclone should turn northwestward as it becomes steered by the lower-tropospheric environmental flow. The latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, and is close to the TVCE consensus. Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is favorable for strengthening in the near term. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a remnant low very near the time it reaches the southern Baja California peninsula, with the low dissipating a short time thereafter. Other than indicating a little faster transition to a remnant low and dissipation, the official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, near the high end of the guidance through 36 h, and then a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models and the intensity consensus after 36 h. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.2N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.1N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 21.8N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.6N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Stewart
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