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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-06-27 22:57:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272057 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Enrique has been trying to form an eye in visible satellite imagery since early this morning. Each time this has occurred, the feature has filled in shortly thereafter. The overall appearance and structure of the hurricane has changed little today, and the latest Dvorak T-number from TAFB indicates that the estimated intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory. A pair of earlier ASCAT overpasses helped to confirm the size of the wind field of Enrique, and showed that tropical storm conditions were occurring within the warned area of the coast of Mexico. The data also revealed that the strongest core of winds of 50 kt or greater were about 50 n mi offshore. Enrique move a little east of north for several hours today. However, over the past couple of hours it appears that the eastward component of motion has ceased, and the initial motion is now 360/07 kt. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is currently moving toward a weakening mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico. A small ridge should build just to the northeast of the cyclone tonight, forcing it to turn north-northwest then northwest. This northwestward motion should then continue until the system dissipates by the middle of the week. Based on the forecast track and wind radii, the core of strongest winds associated with Enrique are forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico through tonight and any deviation to the right could bring the strongest winds to the coast by late tonight. As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a small portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico. In about 72 h, the center of the system is forecast to be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is still favorable for strengthening in the near term, and although not shown in the official forecast, some slight strengthening could still occur through tonight. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a remnant low in a few days. There is some uncertainty as to whether or not this transition will occur before the system reaches the southern Baja California peninsula. Therefore it is possible that a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula by tomorrow. After Enrique does finally become a remnant low, it should dissipate shortly thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM models through 36 h and the corrected consensus HCCA beyond 36 h. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and the government of Mexico as issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 19.0N 105.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
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