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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-06-28 04:51:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280251 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 The satellite presentation of Enrique has improved slightly this evening with a ragged eye occasionally seen in infrared imagery. A couple of earlier SSMI/S microwave images revealed a double eyewall structure with the inner eyewall open to the northeast. The microwave data also revealed good banding structure over the southern portion of the cyclone. Although the eye has been apparent this evening, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB remain T4.5 (77 kt) with objective satellite estimates slightly lower. Therefore the initial wind speed of 80 kt is maintained for this advisory. The environment ahead of Enrique is forecast to remain conducive for some additional strengthening, however the double eye structure suggests that an eyewall cycle is occuring so little overall change in strength is anticipated through early Monday. After that time, decreasing ocean heat content and the possibility of upwelling of cooler waters due to the slow motion of the hurricane are likely to lead to gradual weakening over the next 36-48 hours. Later in the forecast period, Enrique is expected to entrain a drier and more stable airmass and that along with cooler SSTs and potential interaction with the Baja California peninsula are forecast to result in a faster rate of decay in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the slightly higher statistical guidance and the HCCA and ICON consensus aids. Enrique has been moving generally northward, but very recently it appears that the much anticipated north-northwestward turn may be beginning. The overall track forecast philosophy has not changed from the previous advisory. A ridge is forecast to build to the northeast of the tropical cyclone, which should cause Enrique to turn northwestward on Monday, and that general heading should continue for the next few days. The track guidance is in somewhat better agreement than it has been over the past couple of days and the new forecast is between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. On the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days and interests in that area should monitor the progress of this system. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 19.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 20.3N 106.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 20.9N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.4N 108.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 23.3N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 24.4N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 26.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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