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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-06-28 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280835 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Enrique's cloud pattern has changed little in organization over the past several hours. An eye is no longer apparent in geostationary satellite images, but the central dense overcast is still characterized by fairly cold cloud tops. The current intensity for this advisory is held at 80 kt, which is close to the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. A slow weakening trend is expected to begin soon, as the cyclone starts to move into a little less conducive environment. Faster weakening is likely to commence in 24 to 48 hours due to decreasing oceanic heat content, and entrainment of a more stable air mass. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the corrected and simple consensus model guidance and is similar to the previous NHC prediction. Latest center fixes show that the hurricane's heading is beginning to lean a little to the left and the initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt. A weak ridge that is forecast to develop over northwestern mainland Mexico should cause the cyclone to turn toward the northwest during the next day or two. This general motion should continue through 48-72 hours, however the steering currents are likely to remain rather weak so Enrique is expected to move quite slowly for the next few days. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus predictions, HCCA and the FSU Superensemble. On the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for a portion of that area later today. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique will continue to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 20.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 21.2N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 22.7N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0600Z 24.5N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 02/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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