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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-06-28 16:50:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 281450 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The convective structure of Enrique has eroded some this morning as the hurricane appears to be feeling the effects of dry air entrainment, both from downsloping to the northeast off the higher terrain of Mexico and from stable air being entrained from the northwest. This degradation in the northern portion of Enrique's inner-core structure is also seen in an 0919 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the intensity for this advisory was lowered to 75 kt in accordance with these estimates. Enrique's motion appears to be gradually turning more toward the left at 335/4 kt. Over the next few days, a weak low- to mid-level ridge is expected to keep the storm on a similar northwest heading. The latest track guidance is in relatively good agreement, though there have been notable leftward shifts in the HWRF and HMON models. The latest NHC forecast is a slightly farther left compared to the previous one, close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Now that Enrique's inner core structure has become increasingly ragged, weakening is expected to continue via dry-air entrainment as the storm tracks along gradually decreasing oceanic heat content. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a bit faster in its weakening rate over the next 24-36 hours, but Enrique is still forecast to be a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast intensity because Enrique is forecast to track along a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient, where a left shift in the track would likely result in faster weakening rate while a right shift in the track may allow Enrique to maintain its intensity longer. Given the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles along southern part of the Baja California Peninsula. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, which could likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is still near but just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.4N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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