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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-06-26 17:24:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 261523 CCA TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 6...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Corrected initial storm motion in second paragraph Enrique continues to exhibit a well organized structure on satellite imagery. First-light visible shows the formation of a ring of overshooting tops along Enrique's north and west sides, a sign that an eyewall is organizing. Indeed, a recent 1207 UTC SSMIS microwave pass showed this formative eyewall, though some dry air also appears to be wrapping around the hurricane along its eastern flank. Satellite intensity estimates this morning include subjective Dvorak estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB, T4.5/75 kt from SAB, and an objective estimate of T4.3/72 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt for this advisory, favoring the higher intensity estimates based on the improvement in satellite structure since 1200 UTC. Satellite imagery suggests that the estimated motion is beginning to bend a bit rightward at 300/06 kt. As the mid-level ridge to the north of the storm weakens over the next day or so, Enrique should slow down and turn a bit more to the northwest. The large region of monsoonal southwesterly flow south and east of the hurricane may also be influencing this rightward bend in the track in the short term. The new forecast track has shifted again to the right, especially over the first 48 hours, following the track guidance consensus and close to the most recent ECMWF ensemble mean. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. Conditions remains favorable for Enrique to intensify further in the short term, and the current rapid intensification cycle is expected to continue the next 12 to 24 h with the hurricane peaking at 95 kt. Thereafter, an increase in easterly shear could help import dry down-sloping flow off the higher Mexican terrain into Enrique's core. In addition, the depth of warm sea-surface temperatures along Enrique's track becomes increasingly shallow and any further slowdown in the forward motion would result in cool ocean upwelling. Thus, Enrique is expected to begin weakening after 24 h, and this steady weakening should continue through the end of the forecast period as sea-surface temperatures decrease along the forecast track. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.1N 105.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 17.5N 105.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.3N 106.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 19.4N 106.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 20.1N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 22.9N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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