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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-06-27 04:49:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270249 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 After appearing a bit ragged this afternoon, convective banding has increased in the eastern semicircle and near the center of Enrique this evening. A couple of microwave overpasses since the previous advisory have shown a ragged low- to mid-level eye feature. These observations suggest that some of the dry air noted earlier has mixed out. Although objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB remain T4.5 (77 kt) so the initial wind speed is held at 75 kt. Although Enrique has not strengthened as much as previously forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for some slight intensification in the short term. After that time, moderate easterly shear and gradually decreasing ocean heat content along the track of the storm is likely to result in gradual weakening with Enrique forecast to weaken below hurricane strength in two to three days. A faster rate of weakening is expected later in the forecast period as SSTs fall below 26C and the cyclone entrains a drier and more stable air mass near the Baja California peninsula. This is expected to result in Enrique becoming a remnant low by day 5. Recent microwave data indicated that the center of Enrique is located a little south of the earlier estimates, which required a slight adjustment to the 0000 UTC initial position. Although the latest advisory position shows little motion since the 2100 UTC advisory, the longer-term motion appears to be 325/4 kt. The ridge to the north of the hurricane is predicted to continue weakening over the next day or so as a trough digs southward into the southwest United States. As a result, Enrique is forecast to turn north-northwestward tonight and continue on that heading through 36 hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-build to the northeast of the storm, and Enrique is forecast to bend back toward the northwest. The latest official forecast is fairly similar to the previous advisory, but is slightly closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the 24- to 36-hour time period. The new forecast is in best agreement with the GFEX model (consensus of the GFS and ECMWF), but is not nearly as far east as the GFS and HWRF, which continue to bring the storm close to or onshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. Given the slight shift in the forecast track closer to southwestern Mexico, any deviation to the right of the track or expansion of the hurricane-force wind field could bring those winds closer to the coast. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and has also extended the Tropical Storm Warning area farther north. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation of the storm to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.3N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.0N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 20.0N 106.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 20.8N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 21.9N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 23.3N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 24.3N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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