je.st
news
Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-06-27 10:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 113 WTPZ45 KNHC 270841 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 The central dense overcast of the hurricane has not expanded much over the past several hours, and the eye is not apparent on geostationary satellite images. However, Enrique has well-defined convective banding features over most of its circulation. Taking a blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB gives a current intensity estimate of 80 kt. A little more strengthening could occur today, as reflected in the official forecast. In 24 to 48 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and decreasing oceanic heat content should cause a weakening trend to commence. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should be entraining a drier and more stable air mass near the southern Baja California peninsula, which should also contribute to the weakening process. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus and FSU Superensemble predictions. Enrique has moved quite slowly overnight and the initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/3 kt. Steering currents are expected to remain rather weak over the next few days. The system is expected to move on a north-northwestward to northwestward heading, in the general direction of a weak mid-level trough over extreme northwestern Mexico, for the next 2-3 days. Later in the forecast period, the weakening cyclone's track should gradually bend to the left under the influence of the lower-tropospheric environmental flow. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, and not too different from the previous NHC track. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.4N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 20.1N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 20.7N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 21.3N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 22.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 23.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 24.7N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||