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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-10-23 16:56:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 231456 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 Epsilon's structure has not changed appreciably in the last 12 hours, with a small eye intermittently appearing in geostationary satellite and polar-orbiting microwave imagery with additional well-defined curved outer bands. The initial intensity is kept at 75 kt based on SAB and TAFB satellite estimates and the satellite trends. The cyclone continues to move to the north but at a slightly faster speed (360/09 kt). This northward track is expected for the next day or so as the hurricane is primarily steered by a deep-layer ridge located to its east. Thereafter, Epsilon is forecast to turn toward the northeast and accelerate due to strong mid-latitude westerlies ahead of an approaching longwave trough. By 60 h, Epsilon will be moving rapidly over cooler waters and is expected to be completing extratropical transition. The latest NHC official track is very similar to the previous one and is near the corrected-consensus models. Epsilon remains in a low vertical wind shear environment and will actually be moving over slightly warmer waters over the next day as it passes across a warm Gulf Stream eddy. It is unclear, however, that the current storm structure would allow for any strengthening. Thus, the official forecast maintains the current intensity for the next 36 h, and it is likely that inner-core processes will dictate any short-term fluctuations in intensity. After 36 h, slow weakening should begin as southwesterly vertical wind shear gradually increases and Epsilon reaches the north edge of the Gulf Stream. However, the system is likely to merge with another mid-latitude cyclone and become a powerful extratropical low at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast closely mirrors the previous one and the latest global model wind speed consensus forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 34.1N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 35.6N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 37.5N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 40.3N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 43.7N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 48.1N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1200Z 52.5N 27.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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