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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-10-25 15:59:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 251458 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 Epsilon continues its extratropical transition, as the cloud tops near the center of circulation are warming while the cloud pattern continues to expand over the northern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt for this advisory based on early morning ASCAT data. Partial data from a more recent scatterometer pass also suggested this intensity. The cyclone is now moving over waters of only 17 degrees C and the waters ahead of the system are even cooler than that. Epsilon is also interacting with a baroclinic zone as evidenced by a large area of cool and stable air stratocumulus wrapping around the southwestern portion of the circulation. These factors should cause what remains of the inner-core convection to weaken over the next several hours, and the system should complete its extratropical transition by tonight. The post-tropical cyclone will remain large and powerful for the next day or so until it is absorbed by another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in about 36-48 h. Epsilon is moving quickly east-northeastward at around 30 kt. The cyclone is expected to accelerate even more today, with a fast east-northeastward or northeastward motion expected until the system is absorbed by the other low. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one and lies in the middle of the tightly clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 44.3N 49.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 47.0N 41.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1200Z 51.5N 31.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0000Z 56.4N 23.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto [ more ]
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