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Hurricane Eta Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-11-03 03:59:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 030259 TCDAT4 Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has found that Eta has explosively deepened into a strong category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 kt and a minimum central pressure of 927 mb. Eta has maintained a small 10-nmi-wide eye that is evident in satellite imagery and on the San Andreas, Colombia, weather radar. The radar data also suggest that concentric eyewalls may be forming, which would be an indication of the onset of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) and a capping of Eta's intensity and also an end to the rapid intensification cycle of the past 36 hours. The initial intensity of 130 kt kt is based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 137 kt and SFMR surface winds of 130 kt. Some additional strengthening is expected, and Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before landfall occurs. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America. Eta has slowed and is now moving southwestward or 245/06 kt. There is no significant change to previous track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge over the south-central United States should steer Eta west-southwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua with the hurricane making landfall early Tuesday. After landfall, Eta should turn westward and then west-northwestward, and move across Central America through Thursday. Eta's low-level circulation may not survive its passage over the mountainous terrain of Central America, but most of the global models continue to depict a cyclone or its remnants moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by late-week and into the weekend. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast continues to show the system emerging over the northwestern Caribbean late in the period, although this portion of the track forecast remains uncertain. Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be a major threat. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents there should have completed their preparations. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.1N 82.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 13.9N 83.3W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 13.9N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1200Z 13.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 14.3N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1200Z 14.8N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z 15.4N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 16.8N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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