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Hurricane Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-07-10 16:50:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101450 TCDEP5 Hurricane Eugene Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017 The convective structure of Eugene is losing organization and the ragged eye is no longer apparent in the shortwave infrared imagery. However, an 0952Z AMSR2 and 1311Z GMI microwave passes still indicated a well-defined eye in the 37 and 89 GHz frequencies. Moreover, these images suggest about a 20 nm S-N tilt between the near-surface center and the mid-level center apparent in the geostationary imagery. This is consistent with the 15 kt of southerly vertical shear diagnosed by CIMSS. The intensity is reduced to 75 kt, from a blend of the SAB and TAFB subjective Dvorak estimates and the objective ADT value. Eugene should move perpendicular across the large SST gradient during the next two days and reach 22C water on Wednesday. This along with the dry air that has been advecting toward the center of the hurricane should cause steady - if not rapid - weakening. It is anticipated that Eugene will lose deep convection in about two days and become a remnant low. The official intensity forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique and is slightly lower than the previous advisory. Eugene is moving toward the northwest at about 9 kt, primarily being steered by a large mid-level ridge to the northeast of the hurricane. As Eugene loses its deep convection in a couple days, it should be advected along in the low-level tradewinds until dissipation in about five or six days. The official track forecast is based upon the variable consensus method - TVCN - and is slightly north of the previous advisory. Swells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current conditions. Please refer to advisories issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.7N 117.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 20.0N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 22.9N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 24.1N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z 26.4N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 27.9N 123.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 29.5N 125.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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