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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-07-17 04:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021 Felicia continues to exhibit characteristics of a classic major hurricane. The eye remains clear while the CDO is symmetrical with uniform cold cloud tops surrounding the center. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 115 kt for this advisory. Felicia is a small hurricane, and recent ASCAT overpasses showed that the tropical-storm-force winds extend only about 40-50 n mi from the center. Since earlier this afternoon, the hurricane has been moving south of due west, or 260/08 kt. A strong ridge to the north of the Felicia is expected to maintain it on a generally westward motion for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, the model guidance has trended toward a slightly faster forward motion. The latest NHC forecast track is close to the previous one through 72 h, but now lies in between the previous forecast and the track consensus guidance thereafter. Felicia is expected to move over gradually decreasing SSTs over the next few days which should induce a slow weakening trend beginning later tonight or on Saturday. Although the hurricane is surrounded by dry air, it is maintaining an annular structure while it is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear for at least a few more days. These factors may prevent this dry air from entraining into the cyclone's circulation for some time. Because of this, the latest NHC intensity prediction remains on the high end of the guidance for the entire forecast period, with the main factor contributing to weakening being the cooler SSTs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 14.8N 123.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 15.1N 128.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 15.4N 129.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 15.5N 131.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 15.5N 134.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 14.7N 138.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 13.9N 143.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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