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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-07-17 22:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172032 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 Felicia has remained an impressive hurricane this morning. The hurricane's clear eye is still surrounded by a ring of very cold cloud tops and recent microwave overpasses show that the tiny cyclone continues to exhibit a very symmetric convective inner-core structure. The intensity estimate is still 125 kt, based on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix. Due to the small size of the hurricane and the lack of ground truth so far from land, it is worth mentioning that the uncertainty in that estimate is somewhat higher than usual. Virtually no change was made to the NHC track, intensity, or size forecasts, though the uncertainty in the intensity forecast remains high. All of the available intensity guidance continues to insist that at least gradual weakening will begin soon. Although that hasn't panned out yet, cooler SSTs ahead of Felicia could still contribute to at least a little weakening later today and Sunday. A faster rate of weakening is expected by around 48 h as the small cyclone moves over colder-yet waters and possibly encounters some moderate wind shear. There is poor agreement among the various global and regional models how soon the shear will affect Felicia. Once it does, the hurricane will likely decline rapidly due to the very small size of its inner core. By 72 h, every typically reliable intensity model shows Felicia below hurricane strength. The official intensity forecast remains on the very high side of the guidance, closest to the interpolated GFS forecast for the first 3 days, and is near the intensity consensus after that. Felicia has turned west-northwestward, with a forward speed of around 7 kt. In contrast to the intensity forecast, confidence in the track forecast is very high. A turn back toward the west is anticipated by late Sunday as a ridge to the north of Felicia builds slightly. Felicia should then turn west-southwestward early next week as it comes under the influence of an extensive deep-layer ridge centered over the central Pacific. The spread in the track guidance is low, and the NHC track forecast is very similar to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 14.9N 125.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 15.3N 126.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.1N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 16.0N 134.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 15.6N 137.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 14.7N 142.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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