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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-07-18 10:40:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180840 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021 Felicia has maintained its impressive structure tonight, with a symmetric ring of very cold infrared cloud-top temperatures surrounding a warm and well-defined eye. Recent microwave imagery shows that Felicia still has a very compact inner core. The initial intensity is maintained at 120 kt, as the hurricane's satellite appearance has shown no signs of decay since the last advisory. This intensity is consistent with subjective T6.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Felicia should weaken during the next couple of days as the hurricane moves over cooler sea-surface temperatures, although this could be a gradual process while the vertical wind shear remains low. By Tuesday, increasing northwesterly wind shear in a drier, more stable environment is expected to accelerate the weakening of Felicia through the middle and latter parts of the week. Although the official NHC forecast shows remnant low status by day 5, it is plausible that this could occur even sooner if the higher shear values in the ECMWF SHIPS guidance materialize. The official NHC intensity forecast lies above the guidance model consensus through 48 h, then aligns with the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) aid through the rest of the forecast period. Felicia is still moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt. The track guidance has been quite consistent and remains in very good agreement, which makes for a high confidence track forecast. The cyclone is expected to turn more westward by Monday, then move west-southwestward through midweek as Felicia becomes steered by an expansive ridge across the central Pacific. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and lies between the reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 15.5N 127.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.1N 130.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 15.9N 137.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 14.3N 145.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 13.5N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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