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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-07-19 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021 Felicia continues to decline over water temperatures near or just below 26C. The eye is gradually becoming more difficult to locate in satellite imagery, and the CDO, while already small to begin with, has shrunk in size over the past several hours. A blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB suggest that the hurricane has weakened to 90 kt. However, given that environment is not too hostile at the moment, is it reasonable to believe that the vortex of this mature tropical cyclone will take time to spin down despite the degradation in satellite images. Therefore, the initial intensity is being lowered to a perhaps generous 95 kt for this advisory. The cooler waters alone should continue to take a toll on Felicia over the next couple of days by gradually eroding the deep convection. After 48 h, increasing northwesterly shear should help to inject dry and stable air into what remains of the core of the cyclone. By 96 h, if not sooner, Felicia is expected to have lost all of its deep convection and decay into a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one through the first few days of the forecast period due to the rapidly decreasing wind speeds, and is near the ICON intensity consensus model. Thereafter, the NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one. Felicia continues its 10-kt west-northwestward trek to the south of a subtropical ridge. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. Model guidance is in good agreement on the cyclone turning westward by Monday then perhaps west-southwestward later in the forecast period as the ridge expands and becomes oriented NE-SW. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in the middle of the consensus guidance. Based on this track, Felicia should cross over into the central Pacific basin Tuesday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.3N 130.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.4N 131.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 16.5N 133.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 16.3N 136.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 15.8N 138.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 15.3N 141.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 14.9N 144.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 14.1N 149.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0000Z 13.3N 155.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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