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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-07-15 22:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152035 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 The evolution of Felicia's satellite imagery since last night suggested that an eyewall replacement cycle had occurred, and recently has completed. For the past several hours, an eye has been occasionally appearing while surrounded by cloud tops as cold as -80 degrees C. With this eye feature becoming somewhat clearer, the corresponding Dvorak-T numbers have increased. Based on a blend of these latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, the initial advisory intensity has been increased to 85 kt. Felicia continues to move west, or 270/09kt. The ridge currently to the north of the hurricane is forecast to shift the northwest of Felicia by tonight, which will force the cyclone west-southwestward for a couple of days. By early next week, the hurricane should once again become positioned to the south of the ridge, which would result in a westward motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. The small inner-core structure of Felicia is well established, and the cyclone should remain in an environment of low shear and over warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the next 12-24 h. This should allow for some additional strengthening. By late Friday, Felicia is forecast to move into a drier airmass which may begin to disrupt the convection, while the cyclone also begins to move over slowly decreasing SSTs. This should cause the system to gradually weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains slightly above the bulk of the guidance through 24 h due to the aforementioned favorable conditions currently in place for strengthening. Thereafter, the forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.2N 119.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.1N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 18/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 14.5N 128.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 14.5N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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