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Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-07-16 04:53:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160253 TCDEP1 Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 15 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this evening. Infrared temperatures have significantly warmed within the eye during the past couple hours, and deep convection within the eyewall has become more symmetric. A closed ring of infrared cloud top temperatures colder than -65 to -70 deg Celsius now completely surrounds the eye of Felicia. Based on these current satellite trends, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt for this advisory. This lies between the TAFB subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate of 90 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimates of around 100 kt. Warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear along Felicia's forecast track are expected to allow for some additional strengthening in the short-term, especially since dry air in the surrounding environment has had minimal impact on the cyclone's intensification up to this point. The official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward and now brings Felicia to major hurricane status (Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) within 12 h. The NHC forecast remains higher than the guidance consensus through the first 72 h, then generally follows the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) thereafter. The cyclone is forecast to slowly weaken this weekend within a drier, more stable mid-level environment. However, the forecast track keeps Felicia south of the 26 deg C isotherm, which should allow the cyclone to maintain its hurricane intensity through much of the forecast period. Felicia is still moving almost due west at around 8 kt. As the steering ridge becomes positioned to the northwest of Felicia, the cyclone is expected to move west-southwestward during the next day or so. Then, Felicia is forecast to resume a more westward motion for the next several days as the cyclone moves to the south of a subtropical ridge. The track guidance remains tightly clustered through much of the period. The official NHC forecast is adjusted just a bit slower and slightly farther north than the previous one, bringing it closer to the usually reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.2N 120.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.1N 121.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 14.9N 122.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 14.9N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 15.0N 129.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 14.9N 133.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 14.5N 137.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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