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Hurricane Francine Public Advisory Number 12
2024-09-11 16:44:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 111444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 92.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch for the Alabama coast, including Mobile bay, has been changed to a Coastal Flood Warning. Please refer to products from local National Weather Service Offices for additional information. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning this afternoon for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected this afternoon, and Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area late this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, the center is expected to cross southeastern Louisiana tonight, then move northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. Francine is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). An oil platform north of the center recently reported sustained winds of 87 mph (141 km/h) and a peak gust of 105 mph (169 km/h) at an elevation of 98 ft (30 m). The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 976 mb (28.82 inches). An oil platform located east of the center recently reported a pressure of 978.7 mb (28.90 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area this afternoon and tonight, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama this afternoon and tonight. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-11 15:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 111345 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 945 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Outlook issued to update the system in the eastern Tropical Atlantic west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands (AL93). Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Francine, located over the western Gulf of Mexico a couple hundred miles off the coast of Louisiana. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93): Updated: Recent satellite-wind data indicates that the system located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition, showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, and if these trends continue, advisories will be issued on a tropical depression later this morning. The system is moving to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph and will be moving into the central Tropical Atlantic by the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some slight development during the next day or two while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is expected to reach an area of stronger upper-level winds on Thursday, likely ending its chances for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94): A small but well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The proximity of dry air near the system is expected to limit additional development over the next couple of days before environmental conditions become even less conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic: In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week as the system meanders over the Gulf Stream or drifts slowly northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-11 13:44:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 111144 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A broad low pressure system continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coast of southwestern Mexico extending offshore for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of the week while it moves generally north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and towards the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics