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Hurricane HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-07-28 04:40:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280240 TCDEP3 HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014 Hernan's cloud pattern has already begun to deteriorate a bit since it reached hurricane strength this afternoon. The last few visible images showed arc clouds emanating away from the western semicircle, which could be an indication that drier air is getting into the circulation. Satellite intensity estimates are somewhat conflicting, with the subjective numbers from TAFB and SAB increasing from 6 hours ago while the objective T-numbers from the ADT have decreased. Therefore, the intensity is being held at 65 kt for this advisory. Given the recent satellite trends, however, Hernan may not last as a hurricane for much longer. The cyclone only has about 12-18 hours left before it crosses the 26C isotherm and plows over much colder water, leading to a quicker weakening trend after 24 hours. The main difference with the previous forecast is at 48 hours and beyond, with Hernan now expected to become a remnant low by day 3 and dissipate by day 5. Hernan continues to move northwestward with an initial motion of 310/13 kt. This motion is being caused by a strong mid-level ridge located over Mexico and the southern United States and should continue for the next 36 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward and slow down considerably as it is left in an environment of weak low-level steering. The updated NHC forecast is nudged a bit north of the previous forecast beyond 48 hours toward the model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 19.3N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 21.8N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 23.1N 119.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 23.9N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 24.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 24.5N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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