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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-08-03 04:41:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 184 WTPZ45 KNHC 030241 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 Hector's rapid intensification has ended for the moment, with satellite imagery showing that the eye has become cloud filled since the last advisory. In addition, recent satellite microwave data indicate some erosion of the central convection on the north side of the center, possibly due to shear or a tongue of dry air working into the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 95 kt in best agreement with the most recent CIMSS satellite consensus intensity estimate, but it is possible that this is a little generous. The initial motion is 270/11. A large subtropical ridge to the north of Hector should steer the cyclone westward for the next three days or so, and this part of the forecast track is an update of the previous track. Beyond that time, the large-scale models forecast a large deep-layer trough to develop over the northeastern Pacific, causing a weakness in the ridge to the north of Hector, and leading to the cyclone turning west-northwestward. There is some spread in the guidance during this time, with the GFS forecasting a weaker ridge and a more northward track than the ECMWF. Overall, the guidance envelope has again shifted northward from 72-120 h, and the new forecast track does likewise in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus and Florida State Superensemble models. The intensity forecast remains low confidence. While the shear near Hector should subside during the next 12-24 h, the forecast track takes the cyclone over slightly cooler sea surface temperatures during this time. This part of the new intensity forecast thus calls for little change in strength. From 24-72 h, the cyclone should move over warmer water in a light shear environment, which looks favorable for strengthening. However, there is sharp divergence in the guidance for this part of the forecast, with the SHIPS and LGEM models forecasting weakening while the dynamical HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models forecast intensification to a major hurricane. The NHC forecast sides with the dynamical models for this period, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After 72 h, Hector is expected to gradually weaken as it moves into a drier air mass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.1N 126.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.1N 128.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 14.1N 130.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 14.0N 132.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 13.9N 135.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 14.0N 139.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 15.0N 144.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 16.5N 149.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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