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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-08-03 10:51:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 092 WTPZ45 KNHC 030851 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 Although Hector appeared to be disrupted by moderate northeasterly shear earlier this evening, its satellite presentation is generally back on the upswing. A WindSat pass around 0213 UTC revealed that the tiny mid-level eye of the hurricane was still intact, and this feature has at times been apparent once again in longwave and shortwave IR imagery. The initial intensity has been set at 90 kt based on the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Even though the shear no longer appears to be a significant inhibiting factor, marginal sea surface temperatures and mid-level humidity could still be limiting factors for the intensity of Hector. All of the intensity guidance indicates that little change in intensity will occur over the next 24-36 hours, so only gradual strengthening is forecast. By days 2 and 3, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters once again, so some additional strengthening seems likely at that time. This scenario is supported by the dynamical intensity models, all of which depict Hector as a strong major hurricane. The statistical guidance notably shows gradual weakening during this period, so confidence in this part of the forecast is low. By 96 h, Hector is expected to move over cooler SSTs and into a drier environment, so steady weakening is forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and still favors the dynamical model solutions. The initial motion is now 270/10 kt. No significant changes have been made to the track forecast. Hector is expected to be steered westward by a large subtropical ridge for the next few days. A turn toward the west-northwest is anticipated early next week as a large deep-layer trough over the northern Pacific weakens the ridge. There is still a large amount of spread in the global models regarding the forward speed of Hector as it begins to turn west-northwestward. Despite the large spread, the consensus has not changed much, so the new NHC track forecast lies practically on top of the previous forecast, and remains close to the consensus aids HCCA and FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 14.0N 127.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 14.0N 129.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 14.0N 131.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 13.9N 135.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 14.5N 140.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 15.5N 145.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 16.5N 150.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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