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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-08-03 22:46:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 652 WTPZ45 KNHC 032046 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 Satellite images indicate that Hector is re-strengthening. The eye has cleared out again on visible imagery, with an increase in deep convection in the eyewall. Perhaps this shouldn't be a surprise because of Hector's small size, since these systems are known to fluctuate up and down rapidly. The initial intensity is set to 90 kt, between the 75 kt SATCON from CIMSS and a 102 kt estimate from SAB. The large-scale environment would seem to favor some intensification of Hector during the next couple of days, with SSTS of 27-27.5C, light shear, and moderate levels of mid-level moisture forecast. The new NHC forecast favors the dynamical models over the more statistical-based guidance and shows steady strengthening. This should be considered a low-confidence forecast due to the divergent guidance and the small size of Hector. At the end of the forecast, some weakening is shown due to increasing dryness in the mid-levels and a potential increase in shear. The initial motion remains 270/10 kt. There has been no change to the synoptic steering pattern. A large subtropical ridge should push the hurricane westward for the next couple of days. Due to a weakness in the ridge in 2 or 3 days, Hector is forecast to gain some latitude in the long range. Model guidance has been oscillating northward and southward with the forecast in the Central Pacific, with the latest guidance a little faster and farther south. The NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, but not as far south as the new model consensus. There is the potential for Hector to bring some impacts to portions of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to specify the magnitude of the impacts or where they could occur. This is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 14.1N 129.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 131.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 14.1N 133.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 14.1N 135.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 14.2N 137.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.2N 142.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 16.2N 148.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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