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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-08-04 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 283 WTPZ45 KNHC 040235 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 Hector has continued to quickly strengthen since the last advisory, with the eye becoming more distinct and the cloud tops in the eyewall cooling to near -80C. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 102 kt near 00Z, and given the increasing organization since that time the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt. The initial motion is now 275/10. There is again little change to the track forecast philosophy, as a large subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer Hector generally westward during the forecast period. Due to a weakness in the ridge, the hurricane is forecast to gain some latitude from 36-96 h. While the guidance agrees with this scenario, there is a significant amount of spread between the GFS and NAVGEM on the north side of the guidance envelope and the UKMET and ECMWF on the south side. The consensus models are in the center of the envelope, and the new forecast is close to these in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus. The new forecast is little changed from the previous track. Recent satellite microwave data show that Hector is developing an outer eyewall, which suggests the hurricane should undergo an eyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so. This makes it a little unclear how long the current intensification will last. The intensity forecast will show a little more strengthening during the next 12 hr followed by little change in strength through 36 h. The HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models show a little more intensification at 48-60 h, and the official forecast follows suit. After that time, while Hector should remain in a light-shear, warm-water environment, entrainment of drier air should lead to a gradual weakening of the cyclone. Overall, the new intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. There is the potential for Hector to bring some impacts to portions of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to specify the magnitude of the impacts or where they could occur. This is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 14.2N 130.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 14.3N 132.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 14.2N 134.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 14.5N 139.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 16.5N 150.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 16.5N 156.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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