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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-08-04 16:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 085 WTPZ45 KNHC 041435 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 There have been some subtle changes in Hector during the past several hours with satellite imagery indicating a slight disruption of the eyewall convective pattern. This appears to be due to a slowly evolving eyewall cycle, which can only be readily seen by high-resolution microwave data such as AMSR2, due to Hector's small size. Intensity estimates remain virtually the same, so the wind speed is held at 105 kt. Due the eyewall cycle, future intensity changes are harder to predict. Since Hector is forecast to remain in a favorable large-scale environment, albeit with marginal SSTs, little overall change in strength is indicated during the next couple of days. Hector's small size could also make it prone to short-term fluctuations in intensity, up or down, like the one observed yesterday. In about 3 days, Hector is forecast to move over somewhat cooler SSTs and into a drier environment, so gradual weakening is shown. Little change was made to the previous NHC wind speed prediction, near or just above the model consensus. Hector is locked into a westward motion of 270/10 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the north should steer the hurricane generally westward throughout the forecast period, with Hector gradually gaining some latitude on Sunday and beyond due to a weakness in the ridge. Overall the model guidance is in much better agreement than yesterday, and only cosmetic changes were made to previous track forecast. There is the potential for Hector to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to specify the magnitude of any impacts or where they could occur. This is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.2N 132.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.2N 134.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 14.4N 136.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 15.1N 141.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 16.1N 147.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 16.6N 153.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 17.0N 158.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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