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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-08-02 16:27:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 175 WTPZ45 KNHC 021427 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 Well, so much for the shear. Satellite images indicate that Hector is rapidly intensifying and has recently formed a small eye. The initial wind speed is set to 75 kt, based on the TAFB Dvorak estimate. While there still could be some shear over the next day or so, it seems apparent now that the highest shear should stay north of the tropical cyclone, leaving Hector in a pocket of lighter winds. The main inhibiting factor is expected to be more marginal SSTs, with temperatures below 27C in the path of the hurricane. The official forecast assumes the current intensification trend will last for another 12 hours or so, then levels off due to the more marginal waters, similar to the latest SHIPS/LGEM forecasts. It is worth noting that the regional hurricane models show an unrealistic solution of significant weakening in the short term, and have been disregarded. In the longer range, the upper-level environment and water temperatures are more than sufficient to support a major hurricane, and the new forecast reflects these conditions. Hector has turned westward and accelerated, now moving 12 kt. A large subtropical ridge is forecast to build westward over the next several days, keeping the cyclone on this general course into the Central Pacific. The ridge could weaken somewhat by day 5, causing a more west-northwestward motion early next week. Little change was made to the previous official track forecast, although it is a shade faster at the end of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.2N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.3N 126.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.3N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 14.2N 131.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 14.0N 133.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 13.6N 138.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 13.8N 143.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 14.5N 148.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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