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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-07-24 10:47:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 240847 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 Hilary's overall cloud pattern continues to become better organized, although inner-core convection is still fluctuating somewhat. There is well-defined upper-level outflow, particularly over the northwest and northeast quadrants of the circulation. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are now 4.0, which supports upgrading the system to the fourth hurricane of the 2017 eastern North Pacific season. Hilary is expected to continue traversing a warm ocean with weak vertical shear for the next couple of days, which favors continued strengthening. Rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, since the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) shows a 60 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. The NHC forecast is in line with the RII guidance, and is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus intensity forecast through 72 hours, and a little below it thereafter when SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to cool below 26 deg C. A west-northwestward motion continues, near 300/7 kt. The flow on the southern periphery of a large 500 mb ridge that extends westward from the southwestern United States should be the main steering mechanism for the next several days. A slight strengthening of the flow should lead to some increase in the forward speed of Hilary over the next few days. There is still the possibility of some binary interaction with Tropical Storm Irwin to the west, but for now this interaction is not expected to be very significant within the forecast period. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 14.0N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 14.4N 104.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 15.8N 108.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 16.4N 110.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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