je.st
news
Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-02 22:36:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 022035 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Mon Aug 02 2021 Recent satellite images show that Hilda's cloud pattern has become less organized, with the low-level center on the northeast edge of the central dense overcast. Microwave data also show a less distinct eye feature, along with a more broken eyewall. The initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt, which is closest to the latest CIMSS-SATCON value. Hilda continues moving northwestward and should remain on that heading for the next day or two while it is steered by the subtropical ridge located near and west of Mexico. No changes were made to the forecast during that time. After that, the ridge builds farther to the west and a weakened Hilda should respond by taking west-northwestward and westward turns by late week. However, exactly when that happens is difficult to tell due to potential interaction at long range with the remnants of former TD 9-E. A fair number of the models are showing that system regenerating and getting closer to Hilda, which would have the tendency to steer Hilda farther northward. While the new forecast responds to this scenario by shifting the official track about half a degree poleward on day 3 and beyond, a lot of the latest guidance is even farther north. It seems like Hilda might finally be on a steadier weakening trend with the recent degradation noted in satellite data. With moderate northeasterly shear and decreasing water temperatures in the path of the cyclone, Hilda should continue to lose strength during the next few days. Somewhat surprisingly, guidance is a little higher than the last cycle, which doesn't feel like the correct forecast move at this time, especially as the forecast shifts northward over cooler waters faster. The new NHC forecast maintains the weakening trend from the last advisory, and now ends up lower than the bulk of the guidance. Remnant-low status is anticipated just after day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.9N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.5N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.4N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 18.3N 125.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 20.1N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.1N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||