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Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-08-01 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 012033 TCDEP3 Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021 Hilda has had a similar appearance all day with an elongated cloud pattern from southeast to northwest on satellite imagery. Recent microwave passes show that the center is located on the northern side of the central dense overcast. The current intensity estimates have a very wide range from 65 to 90 kt, and with the apparent steady-state of the hurricane, Hilda's wind speed will stay at 75 kt until clearer data emerges. Hilda continues moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. The trends from the last advisory have continued with more interaction shown with new Tropical Depression 10-E to the east, leading to a weaker ridge and a faster northwestward turn of Hilda in a day or so. By midweek, Hilda should turn back to the west-northwest and westward later in the period under the influence of a stronger portion of the ridge. The new official forecast is shifted about a half a degree to the northeast, near the model consensus, although the corrected-consensus models are even farther to the right. With the forecast track shift, it is becoming unlikely that Hilda will get significantly stronger since it will move over cooler waters sooner. In addition, easterly shear should increase tomorrow, probably leading to the start of weakening. Guidance has trended downward since the last cycle, and considering the new track forecast moves over cooler waters faster, the latest NHC wind speed forecast has been lowered 5-10 kt at all time periods, and this still might be too high. In about 4 days, most of the models show little convection remaining with Hilda due to cold water and drier mid-level air, so the system should transition to a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 14.8N 120.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 16.6N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 18.7N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 20.7N 131.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 21.0N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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