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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-08-03 10:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030851 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 The overall satellite presentation of Iselle hasn't changed much during the past several hours with strong convection in the eyewall and an eye which is intermittently obscured by cirrus clouds. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed significantly, so the initial wind speed will remain 95 kt. Although Iselle is probably near peak intensity, it still has a short window of time today to become a major hurricane. It is not likely to strengthen much, however, due to Iselle moving closer to a less favorable thermodynamic environment. Since wind shear is forecast to remain low, only gradual weakening is anticipated after today while Iselle moves over marginal SSTs for the next couple of days. One possible pitfall of this forecast is that, given the forecast storm environment, Iselle could evolve into an annular hurricane, which could delay the weakening during that time. Late in the period, an increase in both shear and drier air aloft will probably help to weaken the storm while it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The official NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one and the intensity consensus. The cyclone continues to move westward or 275/9. A subtropical ridge north of Iselle should steer the storm on this general path for the next few days, with a slight deceleration expected in a day or so due to the ridge temporarily weakening. Guidance is in very good agreement through day 3, and the NHC forecast through that time us basically an update of the previous one. After that time, Iselle should move on a more west-northwestward heading at a faster forward speed due to the ridge rebuilding. The model guidance has shifted northward on this cycle, which seems reasonable given the forecast synoptic pattern, and the official forecast is moved in that direction. It should be noted that the bulk of the guidance is north of the latest NHC forecast at long range, and further adjustments in that direction could be required on later forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 15.3N 131.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 15.4N 133.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 15.6N 135.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 15.7N 137.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 16.0N 142.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 17.3N 147.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 19.0N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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