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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-08-04 08:00:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040559 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 The satellite presentation of Iselle has become much better organized over the past few hours with a warm, well-defined eye and strong convection in the eyewall. A special 0500 UTC Dvorak classification from TAFB had a Data-T value of 6.0, or 115 kt, with constraints suggesting a slightly lower final wind speed. CIMSS ADT values have been running near 110 kt for the past six hours, and this will be used as the initial intensity. With Iselle's current annular structure, little change in intensity is foreseen in the near-term. A slow weakening could begin by late Monday due to the hurricane encountering a somewhat less favorable thermodynamic environment. The official NHC wind speed prediction has been raised significantly from the previous one through 36 hours due to the stronger initial intensity. No changes have been made to the intensity forecast beyond 72 hours at this time. No changes have been made to the previous forecast track in this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0600Z 16.0N 135.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 16.0N 136.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 16.0N 137.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 16.0N 139.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 16.5N 141.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 18.1N 146.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 20.1N 153.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 22.3N 159.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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