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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-11-17 03:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170235 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020 Iota is about to make landfall on the coast of northeastern Nicaragua about 30 miles south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas. Satellite images show that the hurricane is very powerful with a circular well-defined eye and a fairly symmetric convective ring surrounding that feature. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were investigating Iota earlier this evening and found that the minimum pressure was fairly steady at around 920 mb. Based on the aircraft data, including 143-kt flight-level winds, the initial intensity is set at 135 kt. Iota is moving to the west at about 8 kt and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, taking the cyclone across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Rapid weakening is forecast as Iota moves inland, and the cyclone is anticipated to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Central America on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast follows the various consensus models, and the intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance. This is a catastrophic situation for northeastern Nicaragua with an extreme storm surge of 15-20 ft forecast along with destructive winds and potentially 30 inches of rainfall. In addition, the situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is making landfall in almost the exact same location that category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Iota is a catastrophic hurricane. Extreme winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to the heavy rainfall. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 13.6N 83.4W 135 KT 155 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 17/1200Z 13.7N 84.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0000Z 13.8N 86.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 13.8N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Roberts
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