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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-11-17 09:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170844 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 17 2020 Iota made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua around 0340 UTC, near the town of Haulover. Iota's landfall location was about 12 nmi south of where Category 4 Hurricane Eta made landfall earlier this month on November 3rd. Due to the previous damage caused by Eta, wind reports have been extremely limited. There was an amateur radio report from Club de Radio-Experimentadores de Nicaragua of 124 mph (200 Km/h) winds and roofs damaged in the town of Wilbi, Nicaragua. However, it is uncertain if these were sustained winds or wind gusts. At the Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport at 0253 UTC, a sustained wind of 72 kt (134 km/h) and a gust to 98 kt (182 km/h) were measured. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based on the Decay-SHIPS model's weakening rate for inland tropical cyclones, and the remnant eye feature still noted in infrared satellite imagery. Iota is moving westward, or 270/08 kt. Iota is expected to continue moving generally westward today into early Wednesday, as the cyclone moves along he southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located over the northern Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and southeastern Mexico. The lower levels of the ridge are forecast to push southward behind a cold front, which will force Iota and its remnants west-southwestward across southern Honduras and El Salvador in the 24-36 hour period. Iota is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, with the remnant mid-level circulation possibly drifting westward into the eastern North Pacific basin. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Additional rapid weakening is forecast for the next 36 hours as Iota moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance. Although Hurricane Iota has moved inland, damaging winds are occurring inland, and also along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua, where a significant storm surge of 5-10 ft is still likely occurring. In addition to the destructive winds and storm surge, there will be the potential for up to 30 inches of rainfall. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that Iota is moving across the same general location that Category 4 Hurricane Eta did a little less than two weeks ago. Key Messages: 1. Iota is still a significant hurricane. Damaging winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua during the next several hours, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy rainfall from Iota. Flooding and mudslides across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.7N 84.3W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1800Z 13.8N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 13.8N 87.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1800Z 13.7N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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