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Hurricane JOAQUIN Forecast Advisory Number 13
2015-10-01 04:49:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 010249 TCMAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0300 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND, RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS, ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI * ANDROS ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND, LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...BUT EXCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. * ANDROS ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 73.1W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 160SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 73.1W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.5N 73.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.6N 74.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.7N 74.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.6N 74.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.6N 74.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 36.2N 75.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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