je.st
news
Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-08-06 16:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061431 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 Julio has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery this morning. While cloud tops near the center are about -80C, AMSR-2 microwave imagery a few hours ago showed that the eyewall was open to the north. That, combined with a large arc cloud seen moving northward away from the center, suggests that dry air entrainment is occurring on the north side. Satellite intensity estimates are 77 kt from TAFB and 65 kt from SAB. Given the current appearance, the initial intensity remains 65 kt. The cirrus outflow is good over the southwestern semicircle and poor elsewhere. The initial motion is still 285/15, and there is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on Julio moving along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north for the next 72 hours or so. After that, a break in the ridge is forecast to develop north of the Hawaiian Islands, and Julio is expected to turn more northwestward and pass north of the Islands. There is some spread in the guidance by 96-120 hours. The ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL are on the south side of the guidance envelope forecasting a track closer to Hawaii, while the GFS, GFS Ensemble Mean, and Canadian models are on the right side of the guidance envelope. The center of the envelope and the consensus models are very close to the previous forecast, and thus the new forecast track is almost identical to the previous forecast. Julio is in an environment of light vertical wind shear, and it should remain over sea surface temperatures of 26C or warmer for the next 12-24 hours. This should allow some strengthening if the storm can fight off the current dry air intrusion. After that, the cyclone is forecast to move over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C, which should cause some weakening. There is disagreement in the dynamical models about how much shear Julio should encounter while over the cooler water, particularly near the Hawaiian Islands. The UKMET forecasts stronger shear, while the GFS/ECMWF are forecasting less shear. The intensity forecast leans toward the GFS/ECMWF scenario and thus calls for Julio to slowly weaken after 36 hours. The new forecast has minor adjustments from the previous and is similar to the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 15.2N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.7N 132.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.4N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 17.0N 138.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 17.7N 141.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 19.0N 147.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 21.0N 152.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 24.0N 157.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
julio
forecast
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||