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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-08-07 16:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071438 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014 Despite moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, Julio is continuing to strengthen. The eye has become better defined during the past few hours, and the cloud top temperatures in the eyewall have cooled. Subjective satellite intensity estimates are 90 kt from TAFB and 77 kt from SAB, and objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT are near 100 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt based on a blend of these data. The cirrus outflow is good to excellent over the western semicircle and poor elsewhere. Julio has turned a little to the left and the initial motion is now 280/16. Julio is expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge for the next few days, which will keep it on a westward to west-northwestward trajectory. During the first 72 hours, the track guidance is tightly clustered near the new forecast track with the notable exception of the GFDL model, which forecasts a track near the Hawaiian Islands. After 72 hours, the guidance has come into better agreement that the subtropical ridge north of Hawaii will be stronger than earlier forecast, and that Julio should continue a west-northwesterly to westward motion. This has reduced, but not eliminated, the spread in the track guidance at 96 and 120 hours. The new track forecast is just south of the previous forecast through 72 hours, then is adjusted farther south from the previous track at the later forecast times. The new forecast lies near or just to the north of the multi-model consensus and the center of the guidance envelope. The dynamical models forecast Julio to remain in a light vertical wind shear environment during the next 2-3 days as the cyclone passes over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C. All of the intensity guidance forecasts a gradual weakening during that time, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. The intensity forecast becomes more uncertain after 72 hours as Julio starts moving over warmer sea surface temperatures. During this period, the statistical guidance is forecasting a weaker storm than the dynamical guidance, and the the large-scale models have some disagreement on how much shear Julio will encounter. The later part of the forecast is nudged upward as a compromise between the two model camps. Overall, the new forecast lies close to the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 16.9N 136.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.3N 138.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 17.8N 141.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 18.5N 144.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 19.3N 147.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 21.5N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 23.5N 158.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 24.5N 162.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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