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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 15
2019-09-21 04:58:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 210258 TCMAT5 HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 62.8W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 62.8W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 62.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.4N 64.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 68.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.3N 68.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 30.8N 66.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 34.5N 62.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 62.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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