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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-09-04 16:48:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 041448 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Juliette continues to look somewhat ragged in conventional infrared satellite imagery this morning. A warm spot, which appears to be an eye, has been showing up intermittently during the past several hours. A 0914Z AMSR microwave pass indicated the eyewall was open in the south quadrant, so all indications are that additional weakening has taken place. The latest subjective and objective T-numbers provided by the satellite fix agencies also suggest weakening. Based on this input, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt for this advisory. The initial motion for this advisory is west-northwestward, or 295/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the circulation around a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. This feature is expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward motion during the next few days. Toward the end of the forecast period, a westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens, and likely loses most of its deep convection. The weakening system will be steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track forecast has been shifted slightly to the right of the previous forecast package. This more closely follows the latest trusted guidance, especially the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA and the TVCE corrected variable consensus model. Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, reduced ocean heat content, an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening of the cyclone during the next 5 days. The latest intensity forecast continues to show a slightly faster weakening trend compared with the previous advisory package. Note that much of the guidance suggests the weakening trend may be even faster than the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.5N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.9N 119.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 21.8N 121.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 23.4N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 23.0N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston
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