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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-05 04:33:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050233 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019 The satellite appearance of Juliette continues to gradually degrade. The eye is filling and there is evidence of dry slots within the circulation. The cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast feature and curved outer bands. The initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt, to be in better agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Juliette is still in relatively favorable environmental conditions, but that is expected to change soon. The hurricane will likely be crossing the 26 degree C isotherm in about 12 hours, and these cool waters, and a dry and stable air mass should cause steady weakening. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that Juliette should become a remnant low in about 4 days, when it will be over SSTs of 24 to 25 degree C. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Juliette is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. During the next couple of days, the cyclone is expected to continue west-northwestward, but at a faster pace, steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. Beyond that time, the cyclone is forecast to become increasingly shallow, and it should be steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 19.8N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 23.7N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 23.2N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0000Z 22.7N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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