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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-09-05 10:49:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050849 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Juliette's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours. If anything, the spiral bands appear to have improved a bit in the western portion of the cyclone. However, subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have not increased, and the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory. During the next 12 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to traverse decreasing SSTs and move into a more dry, stable air mass, and encounter increasing southwesterly shear. These increasingly inhibiting environmental factors should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken further, and degenerate into a remnant low in about 4 days, as the large-scale models indicate. The NHC forecast is just an update of the previous one, and follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity guidance. The initial motion is a little to the right of the last advisory package, and is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/8 kt. A turn back to the west-northwest within the steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should occur during the next 24 hours. After that, Juliette should continue moving in this general direction, with some increase in forward speed, through the 48 hour period. Afterward, a westward motion should begin as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and ultimately, a remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level easterly flow. The official forecast is a little to the right of the previous advisory and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus models, and is nudged a bit toward the GEFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 20.2N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 23.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z 22.8N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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