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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-09-05 16:42:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 051442 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 There has been little overall change in Juliette's cloud pattern this morning. The hurricane still has a large, ragged eye, but the cloud tops within the surrounding ring of convection have warmed during the past couple of hours. Earlier microwave imagery showed a well-defined low-level eye that is located a little south of the satellite fixes from TAFB and SAB. The various satellite intensity estimates range from 77 to 85 kt, so the initial wind speed of 80 kt is maintained for this advisory. Juliette will be moving over gradually lower sea surface temperatures and into a more stable air mass but the vertical shear is expected to remain fairly low during the next couple days. This will likely result in a somewhat slower rate of weakening than is typical for east Pacific hurricanes moving over cool SSTs. Later in the period, southwesterly shear is expected to increase which should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity foreast is closest to the SHIPS intensity model. The initial motion estimate is 305/8 kt. A general northwestward motion around the southwestern portion of the mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States should continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest, and then the west, is expected over the next couple of days as Juliette gradually weakens and is steered by the easterly low- to mid-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope but is a little faster than the previous advisory to be closer to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 20.6N 119.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 23.6N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 23.6N 131.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 23.2N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1200Z 23.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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