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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 21
2019-09-06 11:26:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060925 CCA TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 21...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019 Corrected motion in third paragraph. This evening's satellite presentation is showing a considerable amount of deterioration of Juliette's inner core. The eastern portion of the eyewall has eroded, cloud tops have continue to warm, and it appears as though some drier mid-level air is intruding from the northwest. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS Objective T-number supports lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt. Although the upper-level winds are expected to remain in a favorable pattern during the next couple days, the hurricane will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into increasingly stable thermodynamic conditions. Subsequently, gradual weakening should continue through the entire forecast period, and Juliette is expected to become a remnant low in 3 days, or less. The intensity forecast is basically a compromise of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the global models beyond the 48-hour period. The initial motion continues to be northwestward, or 305/9 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from the southwestern United States over the eastern Pacific should induce a west-northwestward turn on Friday, and this general motion should continue through the next couple of days. Toward the end of the period, a westward motion should commence as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and eventually, a remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The track forecast is an update of the previous advisory and sides with the TVCE model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 22.4N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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