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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 22
2019-09-06 16:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 061437 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Deep convection associated with Juliette has decreased in coverage over the past 24 hours, however, the remaining convection still wraps completely around the center. Subjective and objective raw T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS have fallen below 4.0, however the current intensity (CI) numbers are still at 4.5. Using a blend of these T- and CI-numbers, as NHC typically does during the weakening phase, yields an initial wind speed of 65 kt for this advisory. Juliette is currently over SSTs of around 24.5 degrees Celsius, with even cooler waters and a more stable and drier air mass along the predicted path of the storm. These conditions should cause gradual weakening over the next day or so, and Juliette is forecast to become post-tropical in 36 to 48 hours. Recent fixes show that Juliette has turned west-northwestward or 300/10 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Juliette west-northwestward during the next 24 hours. After that time, the cyclone should turn westward within the low-level tradewind flow. The dynamical models are in better agreement today on the both the track and forward speed of the cyclone, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.8N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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